Blog

8 pieces

Week 4

NFL Week 4 2026 Post-Mortem: Don't Get Too Cute

The Ravens and Vikings held, and only 320 of 6,292 Circa Survivor entries went out. The ones who lost mostly paid for trying to be clever with the Bills, Lions, Steelers and Cardinals.

Thomas Deane

4 min read

Week 5

NFL Week 5 2026 Survivor Picks

Pinnacle has the Cowboys at -449 over a Tampa Bay team starting an undrafted rookie, and close to half of every pool is on them tonight. The full-season plans take Dallas in a small pool and Houston in a big one, and four of the board's best later games run through a Giants team that is 3-1.

Beau Halding

11 min read

Week 3

NFL Week 3 2026 Post-Mortem: Survivor Minesweeper

Six favorites lost in Week 3, after the Chargers in Week 1 and the Bucs, Chargers and Ravens in Week 2. The NFL is pure chaos, and the list of sure things keeps shrinking.

Thomas Deane

2 min read

Week 2

NFL Week 2 2026 Survivor Picks

Pinnacle has the 49ers at -1025 over Miami, the biggest price any book will post before Thanksgiving, and a quarter of every survivor pool is already on it. After the Chargers took a third of Circa's field down with them, the week 2 question is whether to stand in line with the crowd.

Beau Halding

15 min read

Week 1

NFL Week 1 2026 Survivor Picks

Forty-three books price the Chargers at 81% over Arizona, the deepest number the market will post all season. Here's the week 1 board, what moved since August, where the field is going, and what a full-season plan actually does with the opener.

Beau Halding

10 min read

Sleepers

One Label, Three Bets: The 2026 Sleeper Board

Every sleeper list bundles three different wagers: proven usage the market is ignoring, cheap shares of an offense that has to work, and camp reports ADP hasn't heard yet. Here's the 2026 board, sorted by which bet you're actually making.

Beau Halding

15 min read

Fantasy Football

Situation Over Talent: A 2026 Draft Blueprint After Preseason Week 1

Seven trends from preseason week one: the offensive environments that quietly decide a pick, the running back dead zone that moved up most of a round, and the spots where the market is charging full price for an outcome that only shows up 30% of the time.

Beau Halding

14 min read