This year has been an absolute bloodbath. Three straight weeks of huge eliminations. In Week 1 the Chargers lost as the biggest favorites on the board. In Week 2 the Bucs and the Chargers (AGAIN!) combined with the Ravens to wipe out half the board. And now… Week 3, where the Seahawks, Packers, Saints, Panthers, Eagles AND Bengals all lost.
This was more like a game of Minesweeper than a survivor pool. Favorites went 8–8 on the week, so picking one was a literal coin flip. Luckily, though, we all picked the Chiefs, right? Right?
Honestly, even the Chiefs looked like they might lose that one, and that would probably have been the biggest combination of eliminations I can remember. More than half of the Circa Survivor field was on Kansas City.
Week 2 · Circa Survivor
Half the board, gone in one Sunday
Circa Survivor entries knocked out by the three big Week 2 upsets, out of 16,910 still alive entering the week.
Entries eliminated
The NFL is pure chaos
So what's the lesson this week? Well, it's that the NFL is pure chaos. We work in probabilities here, but sometimes the good team loses and the bad team wins. Sometimes the bad team is good and the good team is bad. Sometimes the good team was never actually all that good at all (cough cough, Green Bay). But there are two genuine shockers here: the Seahawks and the Eagles.
Week 3 · The favorites that fell
Six favorites, six losses
Each losing favorite's win probability at kickoff, from our no-vig consensus of 46 to 47 sportsbooks.
Win probability at kickoff
Seattle and Philadelphia
The Seahawks losing to a Jayden-less Commanders is absolutely bonkers to me after how good they'd looked all year. Daniels dislocated his elbow against Dallas in Week 2, and Marcus Mariota threw three touchdowns without a turnover in his place. Mariota sometimes does this, and then he usually follows it up with an absolute clunker, so be careful.
The Eagles game seemed like a nice play with Case Keenum starting for Chicago, but the 38-year-old journeyman had the game of his otherwise long and uninspiring career. But that's not all. The Eagles are just not that good. The defense isn't what it was, and the offense looks just as lost as it did last year. Maybe Patullo wasn't the problem after all.
The other takeaway is that the Bears are a good football team, regardless of their QB. Ben Johnson may be every bit the quarterback whisperer that Kevin O'Connell is.
Green Bay
The Packers game reads similar to the Eagles game, except this one was a little less shocking. Sure, the Falcons' outright offensive explosion was shocking. But the Packers have looked genuinely bad all year, and the O-line has been horrendous.
I think we all expected Michael Penix Jr. to be an upgrade over Cooper Rush, but in this game he actually looked competent enough to support the absolute glut of offensive talent around him. Bijan has been an absolute stud all year, but no one expected 194 yards from BOTH Bijan AND London. Insane.
Week 3 · Falcons 35, Packers 14
194 and 194
Atlanta's two stars at Lambeau Field.
Yards from scrimmage
Cleveland and Las Vegas
And finally, the Browns are okayish enough to wreck your survivor plans, and the Raiders are actually a good football team with Kirk "You like that!" Cousins at the helm. The list of teams to target as your sure-thing win is shrinking, even with all of the QB injuries.
Week 4
This week the biggest favorites are the Ravens and the Vikings. Don't get too cute; just fire 'em up.
Week 4 · The top of the board
Baltimore and Minnesota, then a gap
Week 4's four biggest favorites, no-vig consensus win probability as of Thursday morning.
Win probability
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