Alpha Free while in alpha
FFSurvivor turns the betting market into no-vig win probabilities, then solves your whole season at once to tell you which team to spend this week and which to save.
Sign in with Auth0. No credit card, no betting account.
JAX
LAC
SF
Your full season plan, the reasoning behind each pick, and the odds it is built on.
Sign in to see itSurvivor looks simple. Pick one winner a week. The math underneath is not simple at all, and most pools are decided by the picks nobody planned.
There is no second chance and no consolation bracket. A single upset in week 3 ends a season you spent months planning.
Every team can be used exactly once. Burning a strong favorite early leaves you reaching for coin flips in December.
This week's safest team is often next month's only safe team. The right choice depends on all 18 weeks at once.
What you get
Nothing here is a hunch. The probabilities come from the same lines the sportsbooks post, stripped of their margin, and everything downstream is built on them.
Moneylines from the market are pulled every morning and converted to no-vig probabilities, so the vig is removed before the number reaches your board.
Disagree with the market on a division game or a quarterback injury? Override any game in your pool and every simulation downstream uses your number.
Your survival odds are computed exactly across every remaining week — no sampling noise — and thousands of simulated pool seasons price what surviving is actually worth.
Chance of still being alive at week 10, computed from one snapshot of market odds.
Optimal assignment
Plans every remaining week at once
64%
Weekly greedy
Takes the best team available each week
51%
Biggest favorite, no plan
Ignores what it costs you later
38%
These figures are illustrative and are here to show what the comparison looks like. Your own numbers depend on your pool's rules, your remaining teams, and the odds on the day you run it.
Built for real pool rules
Plenty of pools demand two picks on Thanksgiving week, or three down the stretch. Most planners quietly assume one pick a week, over a full eighteen, and hand you a plan that cannot be played. FFSurvivor treats every required pick as its own decision, across exactly the weeks your pool runs.
Set any week to one, two, or three picks
Configure it per week on the pool page. The limit is enforced on the server, not just in the browser.
Start and end wherever your pool does
Joining in week 6, or playing a pool that stops at week 14? Choose the first and last week when you create the pool, or change it later — the plan, the odds, and the survival math cover only the weeks you actually play.
The optimizer solves every pick at once
A three-pick week becomes three slots in the same assignment problem, so no team is ever spent twice across the season.
Two picks a week never share a game
Both sides of one matchup can't both win, so the planner keeps each pick on a separate game.
The survival math accounts for it
A multi-pick week is only survived when every one of its picks wins, and the odds are compounded accordingly.
KC
BUF
PHI
DAL
Both picks have to win for week 12 to be survived, and neither team can appear again for the rest of the season.
Sleepers
Every sleeper list bundles three different wagers: proven usage the market is ignoring, cheap shares of an offense that has to work, and camp reports ADP hasn't heard yet. Here's the 2026 board, sorted by which bet you're actually making.
Beau Halding 15 min
Fantasy Football
Seven trends from preseason week one: the offensive environments that quietly decide a pick, the running back dead zone that moved up most of a round, and the spots where the market is charging full price for an outcome that only shows up 30% of the time.
Beau Halding 14 min
The workflow
Start a run and FFSurvivor computes each plan's exact survival odds against current probabilities, then simulates thousands of pool seasons to price what surviving is worth.
Greedy takes the best team each week. Optimal solves the whole schedule as one assignment problem, so no week steals from another. Random picks blindly, so you can see what the other two are actually worth.
You get one team for this week, the reasoning behind it, and the plan it belongs to. Lock it in, adjust an override, and run it again.
Free while FFSurvivor is in alpha.
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