Well, that didn't last long. Back to another week of carnage, where your pool lost somewhere around 40% of its entries on the Cowboys alone. Yikes. Or, good for you if you followed our contrarian or portfolio plans and avoided the Cowboys entirely. There were multiple games decided by late-game blunders. Any team in the NFC East would have wiped your entries, and they all did so in stressful, mind-blowing fashion: Dallas and Philadelphia lost, and Washington and the Giants tied each other.
Anyone with multiple entries surely lost some on Dallas; the only question is how many. I was a little shocked to see ownership as high as it was (42.8% of Circa Survivor, and 44.7% of RotoWire's pool), and it's always a great feeling going into Sunday knowing you're coming out ahead. Don't get me wrong, fading the Cowboys was not obvious. But there were some other nice options that made me wonder why the Texans and Bengals didn't get more concentration. I also liked the Lions, who were on about 3% of Circa entries and won 45-21. Let's get into it.
Week 5 · Circa Survivor
Half the field, gone again
What happened to the 5,972 Circa Survivor entries alive entering Week 5.
- 2,910
- Survived
- 210
- Tied with Washington or the Giants
- 262
- Lost on the Falcons
- 36
- Every other loss, plus three missed picks
- 2,554
- Lost on the Cowboys
Dallas
The Cowboys game was a complete shocker. No one expected the Cowboys to be held to 16 points, and the other J. Daniels had such a surprising start (particularly after last week's clunker of a debut) that it wouldn't surprise me to see him get picked up in fantasy by accident, much like the classic B. Robinson conundrum. Jalon Daniels completed 19 of 25 passes for 189 yards and a touchdown, and didn't turn it over. Sure, the Cowboys lost CeeDee Lamb to a quad injury, but that team is chock-full of playmakers, and the Bucs had been bad enough that it shouldn't have made the difference.
There's always some built-in risk with a Thursday game because of the short week, and it certainly feels like Thursday games are unpredictable, although the data doesn't necessarily back that up. There is some evidence of home-field advantage shrinking in Thursday games, but not necessarily of more upsets.
All that to say, if you picked the Cowboys and lost, it's not your fault. They were the safest pick on the board, at -449 at Pinnacle, and they absolutely should have won. Down eight with 3:42 left, Dallas had the ball at the Tampa Bay 24 when a Dak Prescott pass went off Jake Ferguson's hands and into Alex Anzalone's. You have to wonder whether the Cowboys come back and win if Ferguson holds on.
The lesson here is just not to put all your eggs in one basket. Pools with close to half their entries on the Cowboys suggest players were putting too much of their entries into one game. Our board said Dallas was fine in a small pool, but in a big one the contrarian plan took Houston on every path we ran, and the portfolio plan didn't use Dallas at all. If you lost on this one, it's not just the sting of being out; you also never had all that much upside with a win either.
Week 5 · The top of the board
The safest pick carried the crowd
No-vig consensus win probability at kickoff for Week 5's six biggest favorites, and how many of the 5,972 Circa Survivor entries took each.
Win probability
consensus of 46 to 47 sportsbooks
Circa entries
out of 5,972
Washington
If you're in a DraftKings pool, or any other pool where a tie is enough to advance, then you're in luck. If you're not (Circa counts a tie as a loss), you are probably very angry. The Commanders looked like they had sealed the deal when the returning Jayden Daniels (not to be confused with Jalon Daniels) ran in a 26-yard touchdown for a 27-13 lead. And then, well, they blew it. Jameis Winston channeled his inner Matthew Stafford and peppered Malik Nabers like he was Puka Nacua: 11 catches, 121 yards and the tying touchdown with 1:43 left.
In overtime I was convinced the Giants would actually win this one once they realized they're allowed to hand the ball off to Cam Skattebo. Skattebo might have been a co-hero if Daron Payne hadn't stripped him with the Giants in field goal range, handing the game-winning opportunity to the Commanders. Except, nope: with 12 seconds left, no timeouts and the ball at the Giants' 24, Jayden Daniels held on to the ball, took a sack for no gain, and let the clock run out. Oops.
To be clear, though, this was not a good game to pick regardless. It's only Week 5. There's no need to pick a division rival when both teams are not very good and Jayden is returning from a dislocated elbow.
Jacksonville
I went back and forth on this game. I expected the Eagles to get demolished after Lane Johnson retired and the Eagles decided the solution was to trade another Pro Bowl lineman, sending center Cam Jurgens to Baltimore the next day. The Eagles' splits with and without Johnson are insane for a non-quarterback. That does not bode well for the rest of their season.
Philadelphia · With and without Lane Johnson
A right tackle worth 28 points of win rate
The Eagles' winning percentage, including playoffs, in games Lane Johnson played and games he missed.
Winning percentage
So I wanted at least one shot on the Jaguars, but this game really goes against my rule about picking against teams with talent. Sure, it looked like everything was going against the Eagles, who were also without Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith, but this team still has a ton of talent… somewhere. Still, with everything falling apart in Philadelphia, this seemed like a sneaky pick.
Whelp, the Eagles pulled a reverse Commanders. Jake Elliott put them up 17-16 with a 48-yard field goal in the final seconds, and then they let Ameer Abdullah return the kickoff 53 yards, leaving one second on the clock for Cam Little to boom a 57-yarder. The Jaguars win and the entries are safe.
It's hard to believe, but this week could have been much worse if the Giants don't fumble away their overtime shot and the Eagles don't blow their win.
Houston and Cincinnati
Luckily, my favorite picks for the week, Houston and Cincinnati, coasted to victories. The Texans beat the Titans 26-3, and the Bengals led Miami 28-10 before winning 31-24. If you skipped the greedy plan and went with the portfolio or contrarian plans, you were in solid shape this week. I swapped out any Washington picks on mine personally, but the pick-against-the-Dolphins-and-Titans strategy has continued to work. I was a little hesitant on Cincinnati while Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins were in doubt; had they sat, I'd likely have shifted more into Houston. Both played, and Chase caught a 45-yard touchdown.
Week 6
This week feels a little less certain unless you go with the big favorite again (and look how that worked out last week).
Week 6 · The top of the board
The Rams, then everyone else
Week 6's five biggest favorites, no-vig consensus win probability as of Thursday morning, October 15.
Win probability
The Rams are huge favorites, but the Cardinals are always one of those teams that feel bad to pick against. There's really no safer pick, though. Chiefs-Chargers is an injury-watch situation, with the Chargers' offensive line in pieces: left tackle Rashawn Slater is on injured reserve after ankle surgery. The Colts and Patriots are a little scary as well, with the Pats continuing their Jekyll-and-Hyde season against a division rival, and the Colts being a very inconsistent team themselves.
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