Well… that was an unexpected Week 1. Historic scores, a DOUBLE SCORIGAMI (look it up), a thrilling overtime, and offenses coming out guns blazing in a month when the defenses are usually ahead. After a whimper of a Wednesday/Thursday slate, we got some real FOOTBALL. An entertaining week all around, unless you picked the Chargers, in which case you’re rightfully pissed off at every oddsmaker who led you astray.
So let’s talk about that, because it’s the whole lesson of the week.
The biggest favorite isn’t automatically the safest survivor pick
Were the Chargers the safest pick on the board? The books said yes: LAC was laying 10.5, the biggest number of the week, but the biggest favorite isn’t always the best survivor pick.
Going into the week, the obvious picks were LAC and JAX. (Pittsburgh didn’t enter the conversation until the Falcons’ QB situation collapsed; more on that in a minute.) On paper, the Chargers were the better team. But the Cardinals had a much better chance of overachieving than the Browns did, and that’s what actually matters.
The Browns did exactly what you’d expect. Last year they at least had a defense to lean on; after the Myles Garrett trade, they have nothing left but misery, and Deshaun Watson back under center doesn’t fix that. They’re going to get blown out most weeks, and picking against them is a legitimate strategy all season.
The Cardinals always had a path to a strong offense: the best tight end in the league, a real receiving corps, the No. 3 overall pick spent on Jeremiyah Love, and a quarterback who has at least proven he can get the ball to his stars. That’s more continuity than Cleveland has. I’m not saying we should have expected 26-14. I’m saying there was a PATH to a Cardinals win, and there was never one for the Browns.
The favorite’s number tells you how likely you are to survive. The underdog’s roster tells you how likely you are to get embarrassed.
Survival vs. the field
Here’s the bigger point: it’s not just about surviving the week; it’s about what the field is doing.
Picking the Chargers didn’t just set up the result we got. It also had almost no upside. If you win with the Chargers, nearly everyone else wins too, and you’ve gained nothing on the pool. You’ve spent a team with plenty of good spots left on the schedule (Week 2 vs. the Raiders, Week 11 vs. the Jets, Week 16 at Miami) to end up exactly where you started.
Now look at the Steelers. Even with Cooper Rush, the Falcons had a path to a win. Sure, that game was a little scary, but it was also a great opportunity. Pittsburgh was an option that didn’t emerge until late, which meant the field hadn’t caught up to the QB news. Taking them let you use a team you don’t want to be forced into later, save your good teams for another week, and bet against a field that was piling onto one or two obvious picks. That’s how you gain EV in this game. And it’s how you feel great heading into Week 2.
If you couldn’t stomach the Steelers, the Jags were the next-best version of the same idea
I get it if you didn’t want to risk your entry (or entries) on Pittsburgh in Week 1. That’s where the beauty of the Jaguars pick came in.
From where we sit now, Jacksonville only looks like a genuinely nice survivor pick in two spots: Week 1 and then not until the Titans game in Week 11. This was the PRIME placement. I’d much rather use them against the Browns now than against a Titans team that’s had half a season to figure things out. The Chargers, by contrast, have tons of good spots ahead, and those will likely be at lower ownership. You can use people's fear of another Chargers letdown to your advantage.
Week 2
If you’re still in, you probably rode the Jags or the Steelers. Week 2 is a little different.
The Niners look far safer than the Chargers did (they opened at -12.5 at home against Miami, the biggest number on the board) AND there genuinely isn’t a better spot to burn them later. When the safest pick also has the least future value, you don’t overthink it.
If you’re in a pool that requires two picks later in the season, Tampa Bay is a nice team to burn now so you can save the good teams for later. The Bucs opened at -8.5 and don’t have much future value. Sure, the Bucs have proven they can lose to anyone. If you’ve played Survivor before, they’ve probably burned you at some point (like the Bengals). But again… it’s the Browns.
Good luck!
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