You would think after five weeks of complete and utter chaos I would have learned my lesson, but somehow I was still shocked to see the Rams get embarrassed by the Cardinals. This is a true déjà vu week, similar to Week 1, when the field, lulled into a false sense of security, picked against the Cardinals and paid for it dearly.
In fact, I should have seen this coming. This is specifically what I warned about after Week 1: the risk of picking against teams like the Cardinals, who aren't good generally, but are just good enough to beat anyone. This game ended as so many have this year, with a walk-off upset field goal. Chad Ryland hit his sixth field goal of the day, a 43-yarder, as time expired, and Arizona won 18-16 without scoring a touchdown. It's a feat that has become commonplace this year, but it's no less shocking. Divisional games are always risky, and the Cardinals proved once again that no game is a sure thing.
Five out of six weeks have now seen major upsets, with only Week 4 being a safe week. This week another half of your pool evaporated with the combined losses of the Rams and Colts. Let's dive in.
Week 6 · Circa Survivor
Two favorites took out more than half the field
What happened to the 2,910 Circa Survivor entries alive entering Week 6.
- 1,277
- Survived
- 29
- Every other loss, plus one missed pick
- 703
- Lost on the Colts
- 901
- Lost on the Rams
Rams
I've already written about the Rams enough, but a few more thoughts are worth mentioning now that they're 2-4 on the season. The Rams have admittedly had a rough schedule to start the season, and their last four games have all been one-score games. But I don't know how you can feel comfortable picking them right now without a premium matchup.
They are favored over the Raiders in Week 7, but the Raiders just hung with the Bills, losing 33-30, and can beat anyone. It's hard to believe the best game left on their schedule could be the Chargers in Week 8, but that's just the state of the NFL this year. The Chargers are 0-6.
Myles Garrett could be just the gamechanger this team needs, but he isn't back yet. He has been on injured reserve since knee surgery after Week 1, and Sean McVay said Monday that his 21-day practice window won't open this week, so he'll miss the Raiders game.
Week 6 · The top of the board
The biggest favorite carried the most entries
No-vig consensus win probability at kickoff for the five most-picked teams in Circa Survivor, and how many of the 2,910 live entries took each.
Win probability
consensus of 45 to 46 sportsbooks
Circa entries
out of 2,910
Colts
The Colts will be like this all year. They led 13-0 at halftime and then gave up the next 20 points, including a blocked punt returned for a touchdown, to lose 26-20 to a Titans team that hadn't won a game. There's not much to say on this other than that you can't feel good picking them in any matchup that isn't against the Dolphins. This team is squarely in you-can't-pick-'em-and-you-can't-pick-against-'em territory.
The wins
This was one of those weeks where every pick felt like it could be a loss, so your best bet was diversifying if you had the opportunity. The one game I felt confident about, and wish I had followed my conviction on harder, was the Panthers' win over the Eagles. Jalen Hurts is out for the year after blood clots traveled from his leg to his lungs, a very scary situation, but more than that, the entire offense is hurt. I didn't think the Eagles ever had a chance to win this one. They pulled within 19-14 early in the fourth quarter and almost willed another upset into existence, but it wasn't enough. Bryce Young threw two touchdowns, Carolina won 25-14, and the Panthers were one of the legitimate favorites that survived, along with the Chiefs, Patriots and 49ers.
The Chiefs and Patriots gave me more pause. I continue to be scared to bet against the Chargers despite their now 0-6 record, and the Patriots have been so inconsistent that a divisional game seemed risky. But the Patriots have turned it around, they're 4-2, and A.J. Brown is back on the field after missing four games with a high ankle sprain, even if his return came with three drops.
Week 7
Looking ahead to Week 7, this is the first week where your choices may be meaningfully gated by your prior selections. It may not seem like it given the chaos to date, but this is also the first week that looks truly rough on paper. No week before this looked all too scary BEFORE kickoff. Outside of the Texans, every favorite on the board sits somewhere in the 60s.
Week 7 · The top of the board
Houston, then a wall of coin-flip-plus
Week 7's six biggest favorites, no-vig consensus win probability as of Thursday morning, October 22.
Win probability
At the beginning of the season this looked like a week to pick the Rams. Now, that's a scary proposition to me. But there's also a good chance you've already used the team you truly want this week. So maybe your decision is made for you, and it's up to the gods.
Circa Survivor · Entering Week 7
One entry in twenty is still alive
The 25,017 entries that started the 2026 Circa Survivor contest, in twentieths.
1,277
of 25,017 entries survive to Week 7
- alive
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If you've made it this far, you may be sharing a field that has lost about 95% of its initial entries. Good luck!
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